AI and the New Geography of Value

Giordano Lombardo, Founder, CEO and Co-CIO Plenisfer Investments SGR

1. Second quarter 2026 performance

2. The AI revolution: our view (and portfolio positioning)

3. Systemic risks and (increased) risk control

4. Portfolio strategy for the second half of the year

The second quarter of 2026 closed with the following fund performances^[1]:

• The multi-strategy fund Destination Value Total Return (USD share class) delivered a performance of +2.7% (year to date +1.4%). The Euro Hedged class rose by +2.5% (year to date +2.8%); the Euro class by +3.5% (year to date +4.8%).

• The Destination Dynamic Income Total Return fund delivered a performance of +1.3% in Euro (year to date +1.9%).

• The Destination Capital Total Return (USD share class) fund recorded a performance of +11.2% (year to date +10.8%). The Euro Hedged class rose by +11.3% (year to date +10.8%).

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

In the second quarter, the global equity index rose by 14.9% (MSCI All Country), +11.2% year to date; the bond index (Bloomberg Multiverse) rose by 1% (slightly negative, -0.07% year to date)^[2].

The sharp rebound in the market capitalization of the global equity index in April and May, following the March correction, was however concentrated for more than two-thirds in the semiconductor sector, which today accounts for around 40% of the MSCI Asia, around 19-20% of the S&P 500 and around 14-15% of the MSCI World^[3].

US big tech companies did not let the strong stock market rebound go to waste, launching primary market operations: SpaceX raised 85 billion dollars in the largest IPO ever recorded. Alphabet also posted a record placement, likewise equal to 85 billion USD. OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta have announced new equity capital issuances between now and the end of the year, or at the latest in early 2027. SpaceX has also announced its intention to raise a further 20 billion US dollars through a bond issuance[⁴].

On the interest rate front, during the second quarter market expectations shifted from two possible US rate cuts to two rate hikes by year-end, also driven by inflation data that was not particularly reassuring. This contributed to dollar strength and to a significant correction in the prices of precious metals, industrial metals and more cyclical stocks.

On the bond front, there were no major shocks: despite a sharp correction in energy and precious metal prices, long-term bond prices ended the quarter substantially at the same level as at the start. With the exception of Japan, where long-term bond yields continued to rise. Corporate bond spreads remain very “tight” relative to government bonds, reflecting a general lack of value opportunities.

The market narrative that prevailed over all others in the second quarter was that of AI’s winners and losers, a theme that risks becoming dominant in the coming months as well.

The AI revolution: our view (and portfolio positioning)

In recent months we have witnessed strongly polarized market performance. On one hand, the already-mentioned spectacular performance of certain sectors, such as semiconductors, the so-called “enablers” of the AI revolution (enablers: chipmakers, data center builders, energy providers and power grid operators). On the other hand, the alleged “losers”, such as software companies, which in just a few months lost a significant share of their market value, swept up by the so-called SaaS Apocalypse, the narrative according to which artificial intelligence is destined to make their business models obsolete.

In between, the protagonists of the gigantic investment cycle that dominates not only investors’ imagination but also the macro statistics on US economic growth: the frontier LLM (Large Language Model) labs and the so-called hyperscalers, such as Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon.

The market has swung between two ambivalent sentiments: on one hand rewarding the alleged “final” winner of the race, a title that passes from one to another of the hyperscalers within a matter of months; just look at Google’s trajectory, which went in the space of six to nine months from “loser” status to “winner” status. On the other hand, the market is beginning to harbor some doubts about these companies’ future ability to generate acceptable returns on these investments.

Their model has shifted from capital light to capital intensive. In describing the phase we are in, many observers cite analogies with the 2000 internet bubble, forgetting a substantial difference: back then, many companies financed themselves through the market or debt; today these investments are backed by extremely profitable companies, with solid balance sheets and exceptional cash flows. The risk, therefore, is not the failure of the revolution’s protagonists. The real risk relates to the time horizon within which returns on capital will become substantial again.

In reality, every technological revolution produces winners, losers and a long series of wrong predictions. Artificial intelligence is no exception. The speed at which the sector evolves and at which leadership changes makes it extremely difficult to distinguish structural trends from mere market narratives.

One thing is certain: building the future requires physical infrastructure, energy, computational capacity and investments in the order of trillions of dollars. Capital has once again become a scarce resource, and its cost is once again weighing on valuations, including in the technology sector, after more than twenty years in which business models were asset-light, characterized by high scalability, low capital absorption and abundant cash generation.

We do not presume to know in advance who the future winners of the AI race will be. We have therefore preferred to focus on the “enablers”, that is, the providers of picks and shovels for the gold rush: semiconductors, infrastructure, data centers, advanced components and everything that makes this transformation possible.

These have been the great protagonists of this year’s rally, with price gains often in the double or triple digits. Today, however, these stocks are more vulnerable to a scenario of slowing AI investment growth, which is why we have significantly reduced our exposure, taking the profits achieved, especially along the semiconductor supply chain.

We also believe that investment opportunities in the coming months can be found by looking at the universe of so-called “losers” from the AI revolution: software, service companies, such as rating agencies and payment services.

Systemic risks and (increased) risk control

Given the idiosyncratic nature of many of our portfolio’s stock-picking choices, during the quarter we significantly reduced our overall exposure to equity and credit risk, increasing hedges, both linear and through options.

This is not only about managing geopolitical risk, with the US-Iran war having created a bottleneck in energy prices for several months. The overall macro picture retains structural fragilities that will take years to be absorbed.

The United States continue to show many of the imbalances that, in recent years, had led us to hypothesize a gradual downsizing: constantly rising public debt, structurally high deficits and questions about the dollar’s role in the international monetary system. These elements have not disappeared and continue to represent vulnerability factors in the medium-long term. However, in the short term, the unprecedented cycle of investment linked to artificial intelligence is more than offsetting these fragilities, bringing back into focus the extraordinary ability of the United States to turn innovation, capital and research into earnings growth.

The comparison with the rest of the world is moreover significant. Europe continues to display industrial and technological excellence, but struggles to translate it into an ecosystem capable of attracting capital on a large scale. China, by contrast, remains a protagonist on the innovation front and represents an increasingly credible competitor in the development of artificial intelligence. For us, however, the decisive question remains another one: how much of the value created will actually be transferred to shareholders, and how much will instead serve national strategic priorities?

Artificial intelligence will in any case continue to represent the main driver of transformation for the global economy. But the competition has now taken on a broader dimension: it no longer concerns only the development of the most advanced model, but control of the entire value chain. Semiconductors, computational capacity, energy, critical raw materials and infrastructure have become strategic assets. The AI race has turned into a competition for technological sovereignty. This inevitably generates greater tensions between different areas of the planet, possible trade and technology wars, and inflationary pressures.

Moreover, as we have already noted, the growing demand for capital arising from the transformation of technology business models from capital-light to capital intensive in turn implies an increase in the cost of capital. And this is set to weigh further on valuations, already fairly “stretched”, for both equities and corporate credit.

A further reason to adopt a cautious stance on risk-taking. We are aware that the cost of hedging is likely to weigh on our funds’ returns in the short term, especially if the most unfavorable risk scenario does not materialize. We believe, however, that this approach is consistent with the “total return” mandate of our funds, especially the multi-asset strategies.

Portfolio strategy for the second half of the year

2026 opened with a significant rotation in investments: from the United States to Europe and Asia. From growth stocks to value stocks. This rotation was interrupted by the outbreak of the war in Iran: investors went back to favoring US assets, and the dollar was the first beneficiary of this reversal.

We believe it is possible that, following a stabilization of the situation in the Middle East, the rotation could resume. We continue to see the United States as the main driver of global innovation, but this does not mean giving up on diversification.

On the contrary, we believe that the new environment makes it even more important to seek opportunities where fundamentals are solid but valuations remain attractive: from emerging market debt to certain areas of the European market, particularly in the industrial and financial sectors.

The underlying trends remain the ones we identified at the start of our mandate, at the beginning of the decade: for more than forty years investors benefited from an environment characterized by steadily declining interest rates, abundant liquidity and progressive globalization. But today the picture is profoundly different.

Artificial intelligence, geopolitical competition, reindustrialization and the return of infrastructure investment are bringing the real cost of capital back to the center of the investment equation.

In this context, active management can express its value more incisively, not only by identifying structural changes, but by seeking to benefit from them while taking valuations into account, and regardless of the weight that certain stocks have in stock market indices.

^[1] Source: Plenisfer Investments SGR. Data as of June 30, 2026.

^[2] Source: Bloomberg.

^[3] Source: Bloomberg.

^[4] Source: Bloomberg.

Disclaimer

Marketing communication for professional investors in Italy. Please refer to the Prospectus and KID before making any final investment decisions. All market data is sourced from Bloomberg.

DESTINATION VALUE TOTAL RETURN ("DVTR")

The objective of this Sub-Fund is to achieve a superior risk-adjusted total return over the market cycle. The Sub-Fund aims to achieve its objective by investing globally with exposure to both OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and non-OECD markets. The Sub-Fund promotes ESG characteristics pursuant to Article 8 of the SFDR Regulation. Benchmark: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) Index. The Sub-Fund is actively managed and uses the benchmark for the calculation of the performance fee. The Fund does not use the benchmark for investment purposes. Risks of the Sub-Fund: The product described here entails, among others, the following risks: interest rate risk – credit risk – equity risk – derivatives risk: leverage may vary up to 350%, increasing the risk of loss – capital loss risk: this is not a guaranteed product and there is no guarantee that the investment objective will be achieved. Investors may risk losing part or all of their initial investment. Returns may increase or decrease due to currency fluctuations.

For complete information on the Fund, including risks, performance and costs, and to view the Prospectus and the KIDs, please visit: https://www.plenisfer.com/it/en/professional/fund-page/plenisfer-investments-sicav-destination-value-total-return-ix-usd-accumulation-or-lu2087694050

DESTINATION DYNAMIC INCOME TOTAL RETURN ("DDITR")

The objective of this Sub-Fund is to achieve an attractive risk-adjusted total return through capital appreciation over the medium term and income generation. The Sub-Fund pursues its objective by investing globally with exposure to both OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and non-OECD markets. The Sub-Fund promotes ESG characteristics pursuant to Article 8 of the SFDR Regulation. Benchmark: Euro Short-Term Rate (€STR). The Sub-Fund is actively managed and uses the benchmark for the calculation of the performance fee. The Fund does not use the benchmark for investment purposes. Risks of the Sub-Fund: The product described here entails, among others, the following risks: interest rate risk – credit risk – equity risk – derivatives risk: leverage may vary up to 350%, increasing the risk of loss – capital loss risk: this is not a guaranteed product and there is no guarantee that the investment objective will be achieved. Investors may risk losing part or all of their initial investment. Returns may increase or decrease due to currency fluctuations.

For complete information on the Fund, including risks, performance and costs, and to view the Prospectus and the KIDs, please visit: https://www.plenisfer.com/it/en/professional/fund-page/plenisfer-investments-sicav-destination-dynamic-income-total-return-rx-eur-accumulation-or-lu2597958268-acc-LU2597958268

DESTINATION CAPITAL TOTAL RETURN ("DCTR")

The objective of this Sub-Fund is to achieve an attractive risk-adjusted total return through long-term capital appreciation, accompanied by an income-generating component. The Sub-Fund pursues its objective by investing primarily and dynamically in the global equity asset class. The Sub-Fund promotes ESG characteristics pursuant to Article 8 of the SFDR Regulation. Benchmark: MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) Total Return USD. The Sub-Fund is actively managed and uses the benchmark for the calculation of the performance fee. The Fund does not use the benchmark for investment purposes. Risks of the Sub-Fund The product described here entails, among others, the following risks: interest rate risk – credit risk – equity risk – derivatives risk: leverage may vary up to 350%, increasing the risk of loss – capital loss risk: this is not a guaranteed product and there is no guarantee that the investment objective will be achieved. Investors may risk losing part or all of their initial investment. Returns may increase or decrease due to currency fluctuations.

For complete information on the Fund, including risks, performance and costs, and to view the Prospectus and the KIDs, please visit: https://www.plenisfer.com/it/en/professional/fund-page/plenisfer-investments-sicav-destination-dynamic-income-total-return-rx-eur-accumulation-or-lu2597958268-acc-LU2597958268

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This marketing communication (“communication”) relates to Plenisfer Investments SICAV, an investment company with variable capital (SICAV) established under Luxembourg law of 17 December 2010 and qualifying as an undertaking for collective investment in transferable securities (UCITS), together with its Sub-Funds, jointly referred to as the "Fund". This communication is intended for professional investors and/or retail investors in the countries of the European Economic Area (“EEA”) in which the Fund is registered for distribution, and is not intended for U.S. Persons as defined by Regulation S of the United States Securities Act of 1933, as subsequently amended. Before making any investment decision, investors must read the Prospectus, the relevant SFDR Annex and the Key Information Document (KID), available, together with the annual and semi-annual financial reports, on the website www.generali-investments.lu or free of charge on request from the Management Company, Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A., at the e-mail address: GILfundInfo@generali-invest.com. The Prospectus is available in English (not in French) and the KIDs are available in one of the official languages of the country of distribution. A summary of investors’ rights is available in English on the website http://www.generali-investments.lu/ in the “About us/Generali Investments Luxembourg” section. For products classified under Articles 8 or 9 of the SFDR, a summary of the product disclosures required under Article 10 SFDR (in English or another authorized language) is available on the relevant Fund’s page, in the section "Sustainability-related disclosure", as well as the related dedicated link. The Management Company may decide to revoke the arrangements made for the marketing of the Fund. This marketing communication is not intended to provide investment, tax, accounting, professional or legal advice and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell the Fund or any other financial instruments that may be mentioned. Any opinions or forecasts provided are as of the date indicated, may change without notice, may not materialize and do not constitute a recommendation or an investment offer. There is no guarantee that positive forecasts will be realized in the future. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Costs and fees apply and may affect returns. Costs and performance may increase or decrease as a result of currency and exchange rate fluctuations. Future performance is subject to taxation, which depends on each investor’s personal situation and may change over time. Investors are advised to consult their tax advisor in their country of residence to understand the impact of taxation on returns. This document is issued by Plenisfer Investments SGR S.p.A. and Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A., authorized as Management Company in Luxembourg. Plenisfer Investments SGR S.p.A. is authorized as an asset management company in Italy and has been appointed as promoter for the marketing of the Fund in Italy, where the Fund and its Sub-Funds are registered for distribution (Via Niccolò Machiavelli 4, 34132 Trieste, Italy – C.M. no.: 15404 – LEI: 984500E9CB9BBCE3E272). Sources: Plenisfer Investments SGR S.p.A. and Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Asset Management Company

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