Quarterly Outlook
After a two-year tightening of central banks, at the macro level, despite market expectations, we think rates will remain "higher for longer": the decline in interest rates began to be discounted by the market starting last October but following more robust economic data and the slowing of the decline in inflation, these expectations have gradually receded.
The underlying geopolitical scenario remains unstable due to the two major outbreaks of war, the Russian-Ukrainian and the one between Israel and Hamas. This continues to impact the investment landscape, with direct contribution to the recovery of commodities and the energy sector in particular.
In terms of asset allocation, we think it should be oriented toward favoring real assets over financial assets. In equity markets, the problem of excessive concentration of indices, both global and U.S., on a few of the best-known stocks such as the so-called "Magnificent Seven" persists. This excessive concentration could also be a driver of downward volatility in the event of a market correction. The correct approach, in our opinion, should be a diversified approach that places a share of real assets alongside stocks and bonds. Thus, alongside a more strategic position on gold and energy stocks, we think that targeting those commodities that are essential to the energy transition, characterized by limited supply and growing demand, such as copper or uranium, should remain the focus for the coming months of the year. Although uranium was among the best-performing commodities in 2023, with prices up more than 80% thanks in part to the reopening of new nuclear power plants in several countries, primarily China, at Plenisfer we think the current bullish phase is long-term.
In our view, an efficient way to look at these allocations is through ETCs that offer direct exposure to the commodity by providing protection from the difficulties producers are facing. But if you have a medium- to long-term time horizon, it will be the producers' stocks that can offer individual opportunities. In addition to energy commodity producers, gold producers will also have to be monitored: the factors, such as central bank purchases, that have supported its 25% growth in three years remain. On the other hand, mining company stocks have valuations at historic lows, which have been hurt in the past by lower investment in new production capacity and rising production costs. However, the rise in raw material will allow companies to return to efficient mining, restoring operating margins. In addition, extremely compressed valuations should not be forgotten, which may represent an opportunity in light of strong balance sheets characterized by levels of capital expenditure and debt well below the levels seen in previous positive gold cycles.
Looking at the coming months, we see opportunities in emerging markets versus developed markets, with the exception of China. Here we think it is necessary to be very selective. A choice focused on high-quality stocks bought at reasonable prices could be the winning combination.
In currency terms, we then expect a secular weakening of the dollar from which emerging market bonds issued in local currencies could benefit. The election phases of countries such as Mexico or Indonesia will have to be monitored with particular attention.
Uncertainties, macroeconomic and on monetary maneuvers, impose caution about the prospects for monetary policy easing: this has particularly impacted the bond market, which we think may continue to offer attractive opportunities. We believe it is best to prefer companies with solid fundamentals, Investment Grade. We see opportunities in the short- and medium-term part of the curve, and we think companies, in the U.S. and Europe, that generate competitive cash flows, such as those in the energy and telecommunications sectors, or, selectively, in the financial sector, are to be preferred.
Disclaimer
Performance information of the Fund
^Fund Factsheet - Plenisfer Investments Sicav Société d'investissement à capital variable (SICAV) Luxembourg" - Destination Value Total Return ("Fund" or "Sub-Fund")
Investment Objective and Policy: The objective of this Sub-Fund is to achieve a superior risk-adjusted total return over the market cycle. The goal is value creation through risk-adjusted total return. Achieving long-term capital appreciation and underlying income through a long-term focus on valuation and market cycles is key to achieving the Sub-Fund's objectives.
Legal structure: UCITS - SICAV
Investment Manager: Plenisfer Investments SGR S.p.A.
Management Company: Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A.
Launch date: 04/05/2020 (share class EUR ACCUMULATION)
Benchmark for performance fee calculation only: SOFR Index
Subscription/Redemption process: Valuation day, 13:00 Luxembourg time (T)/ Redemption: Valuation day, 13:00 Luxembourg time (T) + 5
Minimum subscription: € 500,000 share class I; € 1,500 share class R
Currency: USD
SFDR classification: The Fund promotes, among other features, the environmental or social characteristics set out in Article 8 of Regulation (EU) 2019/2088 on sustainability reporting in the financial services sector ("SFDR"). The Fund is not an Article 9 under SFDR (does not have sustainable investment as an objective). For all information on the SFDR (Sustainable Finance Disclosure), please refer to Annex B of the Prospectus ("pre-contractual document").
The Fund is denominated in a currency other than the investor's base currency, changes in the exchange rate may have an adverse effect on the net asset value and performance.
Risk profile and inherent risks
Risk factors: Investors should consider the specific risk warnings contained in section 6 of the Prospectus and more specifically those concerning: - Interest rate risk. - Credit risk. - Equity risk. - Emerging markets risk (including China). There is no pre-determined limitation to exposure to emerging markets. Emerging market risk may therefore be high at times. - Frontier market risk. - Foreign exchange risk. - Volatility risk. - Liquidity risk. - Derivatives risk. - Short exposure risk. - Distressed debt risk. - Securitised debt risk. - Contingent Capital Securities Risk ('CoCos').
Destination Value Total Return
RISKS
Summary Risk Indicator
Its purpose is to help investors understand the uncertainties associated with gains and losses that can impact their investment.
The performance fee is calculated according to the "High Water Mark with performance fee benchmark" mechanism with a performance fee rate of 15.00% per annum of the positive return above the "SOFR Index" (the performance fee benchmark). The actual amount will vary depending on the performance of your investment. Tax aspects depend on the individual circumstances of each client and may change in the future. Please consult your financial advisor and your tax advisor for more details. Please refer to the countries of distribution and the website of the management company to find out if a class is available in your country and for your group of investors.
(#) Based on the latest KID - January 2024.
Important information:
This marketing communication is issued jointly by Plenisfer Investments SGR S.p.A. and Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A., authorised and regulated in Luxembourg by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF). This document is prepared for professional investors and is not intended for distribution to retail clients.
This marketing document is distributed for information purposes only and is related to Plenisfer Investments SICAV, an open-ended investment company with variable capital under Luxembourg law, qualified as an undertaking for collective investment in transferable securities (UCITS) and its sub-fund Destination Value Total Return. Before making any investment decision, you are advised to read the PRIIPs KID, the Prospectus and the annual and semi-annual reports as soon as they become available. These documents are available in English and the KID in local language on the following website: https://www.generali-investments.lu/. Please note that the Management Company may decide to terminate the agreements made for the marketing of the Sub-Fund in accordance with Article 93a of Directive 2009/65/EC and Article 32a of Directive 2011/61/EU. For a summary of investor rights and guidelines on individual or collective redress for disputes over a financial product at EU level and in the investor's country of residence, please refer to the following links: www.generali-investments.com and www.generali-investments.lu. The summary is available in English or in a language authorised in the investor's country of residence. This communication does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. Please consult your tax and financial adviser to find out whether the Fund is suitable for your personal circumstances and to understand the associated tax risks and impacts. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in the future.
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is provided by the Investment Manager (Plenisfer Investments SGR S.p.A.) and must not be reproduced or disseminated without prior permission. Third party trademarks, copyrights and other intellectual property rights are and remain the property of their respective owners. Anyone wishing to use this information assumes the entire risk of its use.
The opinions expressed as to economic and market trends are those of the author and not necessarily those of Plenisfer Investments SGR S.p.A. The information and opinions contained in this document are for informational purposes only and do not purport to be complete or exhaustive. No reliance can be placed for any purpose on the information or opinions contained in this document or on its accuracy or completeness. The Investment Manager makes no representations, warranties or undertakings, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this document and accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information or options.
The opinions expressed in this presentation should not be regarded as investment advice, security recommendations or trading recommendations. There can be no assurance that any market forecast discussed will be realised or that market trends will continue. These opinions are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions.
Investment management involves many risks, including political and currency risks, and could result in the loss of invested capital. There can be no assurance that the Fund's investment objectives will be met or that its investment programme will be successful.
This material does not constitute an offer to buy or sell units of any investment fund or any security or service. It is directed to persons resident in the jurisdictions in which the fund in question has been/will be authorised for distribution. More specifically, the presentation is not intended for residents or citizens of the United States of America, or "U.S. Persons" as defined in "Regulation S" of the Securities and Exchange Commission under the Securities Act of 1933. The definition of "U.S. Persons" is provided below. The term "U.S. Person" refers to: (a) any natural person resident in the United States of America; (b) any partnership or corporation incorporated or registered under applicable U.S. law; (c) any estate (or "trust") whose executor or administrator is a "U.S. Person"; (d) any trust in which one of the trustees is a "U.S. Person"; (e) any agency or branch of a non-U.S. entity located in the U.S; (f) any non-discretionary account (other than an estate or trust) maintained by a financial intermediary or any other authorised representative, incorporated or (in the case of natural persons) resident in the U.S. (g) any discretionary account (other than an estate or trust) maintained by a financial intermediary or any other authorised representative registered or (in the case of natural persons) resident in the United States of America and (h) any partnership or corporation, if (1) formed under the law of a country other than the United States of America and (2) formed by a US Person primarily for the purpose of investing in securities not registered under the Securities Act of 1933. This restriction also applies to residents and citizens of the United States of America and "U.S. Persons" who may visit or access this Site while travelling or residing outside the United States of America.
