Third Quarter 2025 Letter

Marketing communication for professional investors in Italy.
Before making any investment decision, please read the Prospectus and related KIDs

Giordano Lombardo, Founder, CEO and Co-CIO Plenisfer Investments SGR
October 10, 2025

1. Third quarter and YTD performances
2. Artificial Intelligence: is all that glitters gold?
3. Why uranium is our first portfolio position (alongside gold)
4. And what’s next for gold after the 2025 rally?
5. Europe, the unfinished project
6. China: at the beginning of a structural bull market
7. Conclusion

1. Third quarter and YTD performances

All funds performed positively - particularly the multi-asset and equity sub-funds - in both Q3 and YTD[1]

Destination Value Total Return returned +25% YTD (USD$ share calss), +17% (Eur hedged share class) and +9.8% (euro share class). In the third quarter the performance was +7.2% for the dollar share class, +7.1% for the Eur hedged share class and +7% for the euro share class.

Destination Capital Total Return performance was +38.9% YTD for the dollar share class and +30.9% for the EUR hedged share class. In the third quarter the performance was +15.4% for the dollar share class and +15% for the EUR hedged share class.

Destination Dynamic Income Total Return gained +3.6% (in EUR) YTD and +1.5% in Q3.

Past performance is not indicative of future results

2. Artificial Intelligence: is all that glitters really gold?

The first nine months of 2025 have delivered buoyant global equity markets, an all-time high gold price, and strong performances from both high yield and investment grade credit. Even the dollar seems to have halted its downward trend since the beginning of the year.

So, is everything fine? 

Were our concerns regarding the unsustainable accumulation of global debt, the effects of Trump’s trade war, and rising geopolitical tensions unfounded? Of course not, as demonstrated by the fall of the dollar during 2025.

The narrative surrounding the Artificial Intelligence revolution – which will reshape everything in the coming years (the global economy, corporate business models, perhaps even the resilience of democratic systems) – is gaining traction every day. It is inflating equity valuations not only for the so-called Magnificent Seven, but for an ever-growing number of companies, including many outside the U.S. It has offset fears of a global recession and perhaps even the specter of inflation, given its promises of boosting productivity delivering deflationary effects. 

This argument of AI-driven prosperity is also influencing corporate bonds, which spreads are at record lows, as well as emerging markets, both equity and debt, which continue to rally. Gold is also rising, because, after all, debts have not exactly disappeared and there is a declining trust in central banks that are losing independence. The only asset class shunned by investors today seems to be government bonds in developed markets. And not just U.S. Treasuries: storm clouds are gathering over France and the U.K. as well. 

The strength of the Artificial Intelligence narrative is remarkable. Bearish commentators can be counted on one hand and are constantly contradicted by fresh market news. Not a day goes by without a new announcement of strategic partnerships in the tech world, while CEOs across all sectors feel compelled to mention AI in analyst calls.

As naturally contrarian – and perhaps a little “old school” – investors, we cannot help but ask ourselves: is all that glitters really gold?

The scale of announced and ongoing investments is staggering: U.S. companies are expected to commit between $400 and $500 billion to building data centers to support AI development in 2025. These massive investments, in turn, generate equally massive demand for energy. Citigroup estimates that AI computing power will require an additional 50 GW of global capacity by 2030 (slightly less than the UK’s entire installed capacity today), meaning $2.8 trillion of incremental global spending. 

What worries us? With several decades of investment experience, we have already seen historic capital expenditure cycles that seemed impossible to repeat. One of our guiding stars is the theory of the capital cycle: excessive investment in any given area, however transformative, eventually leads to misallocation and to the collapse of inflated return expectations. To be clear: we do not deny the extraordinary potential of AI. The way it is transforming our daily workflow is astonishing. We are certain that AI is the future and we have only seen a fraction of its capabilities so far. What concerns us are the consequences of this immense wave of investment for investors. The amortization cycles of data centers and chips required for their construction are short: typically, 3 to 5 years. The revenues needed to cover these amortizations - after accounting for other costs, are enormous – around ten times current AI-generated revenues.

 Of course, revenues may indeed grow enough to justify this massive capex race. How? By replacing white-collar labor not only in repetitive, standardized tasks, but also in more sophisticated and specialized ones: AI teachers, AI doctors, AI lawyers, perhaps even AI portfolio managers! We believe this will eventually happen – but on a much longer time horizon. And with profound social implications.

We cannot rule out that the AI investment boom will continue in the coming months or quarters. In fact, it seems highly likely. But we cannot help but wonder: if the cash flows of the companies involved – however vast – are increasingly eroded by these expenditures, what will happen to their equity valuations?

What are the consequences for our portfolio? We continue to think that an “oblique” and non-direct positioning is the best choice. Either because we have focused on the so-called ‘enablers’ (such as semiconductor testers: Advantest), or because we have preferred more specific and ‘special situation’ companies over the better-known names: last quarter we built a new position on neo-cloud manufacturer Nebius, a company reborn from the ashes of Yandex (Russia) and endowed with exceptional technological skills. Finally, we believe that while Chinese technology stocks are as involved in the AI race as their Western counterparts, they do not reflect the full valuations of their US equivalents (i.e. Tencent).

3. Why uranium is our first portfolio position (alongside gold)

The other side of AI’s explosive growth, as noted above, is the voracious energy demand it generates. In the energy field, our conviction is clear: while traditional renewables (wind and solar) lack the strength and efficiency to replace fossil fuels, we believe the long-term solution to the energy production challenge – further amplified by AI – lies in nuclear power: “clean” energy with far higher efficiency than fossil fuels themselves.

Hence our uranium position, initiated three years ago when few were paying attention, and maintained in the portfolio ever since. After tactically reducing exposure in 2024, before a natural market pullback, we have reinvested. 

In the age of the energy transition, nuclear is the inevitable response to electricity demand, a fact already recognized by Big Tech. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have built or announced investments worth more than $3 billion[2] in existing plants or in the new generation of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Uranium demand is set to rise, as is the supply deficit, which is already structural. 

We also consider the potential correlation between the AI and nuclear narratives. They are certainly linked. Yet we believe the investment case for uranium remains strong even if AI return expectations were to be scaled back (our skepticism is not about the magnitude of the AI revolution, but about whether it can deliver promised returns in a reasonable timeframe – say, three to five years). Just consider the Trump administration’s decisive deregulation of nuclear plant construction, or the continuous nuclear buildout already underway in China. And the next-generation SMRs have not even reached full commercialization yet. 

4. And what’s next for gold after the 2025 rally?

Gold will remain a structural and significant position in our portfolio. The reason is straightforward: mounting doubts regarding sovereign debt sustainability, beginning with the U.S.; central banks in emerging markets replacing dollar reserves with gold; and growing private demand, though from a very low base. 

Gold remains in a phase of aggressive accumulation. Until it at least returns to its long-term average relative to equity markets (today the ratio of the Dow Jones index to gold is 11 times, compared to a historical average of 8[3]), there is still substantial upside potential. Of course, this ratio can normalize in two ways: through a further rally in gold, through a decline in equities, or through some combination of the two.

5. Europe, the unfinished project

At the beginning of the year, we bet on Europe making a decisive turn toward pro-growth policies, investments in infrastructure and defense. So far, those promises remain largely unfulfilled.

While Russia pressures the continent’s borders and China secures new leadership positions, investments remain mostly on paper, with few exceptions. European welfare systems remain generous yet unsustainable in the face of adverse demographic trends. Countries such as France show deteriorating fiscal positions and political instability. To contain ever-rising public debts, the politically feasible path is not drastic welfare cuts, but stealthy monetization – that is, allowing real rates to turn negative. This scenario would subject many institutional sovereign bondholders to the effects of “financial repression.” Could capital controls also be on the horizon? 

One thing is certain: without growth-oriented investment plans and structural reforms to liberalize the single market – as outlined in the “Draghi Plan” – there is a risk of worsening stagnation, fueling further populist momentum.  In this context, Europe would not only continue to fall short of its potential, but sovereign debt itself could emerge as the next “uninvestable” asset class. That is why we have chosen not to hold European sovereign bonds. 

As for European equities, after a strong Q1 driven by U.S. outflows, they have reverted to reflect stagnation and earnings weakness. The exception is the banking sector, where we maintain exposure in both equity and credit, including undervalued opportunities such as Greek banks, on which we recently took profits while remaining positive on the sector.

 We also continue to look for promising small and mid-caps, that are less tied to the continent’s macro fundamentals. Our most recent position is Avio, in the satellite launch sector, with attractive growth opportunities in defense, including in the U.S.

6. China: at the beginning of a structural bull market

Chinese equities are, as of today, the best-performing equity market of 2025[4].

We have often reiterated our contrarian stance against those who deemed – and in many cases still deem – China “uninvestable.” We have consistently invested in the country through careful stock picking. 
Highly compressed valuations are certainly one driver of the rally: equity multiples have fallen significantly over the past decade, particularly in tech, partly due to strict government policies targeting the sector. 
But the stronger arguments for a constructive thesis on China go well beyond these numbers. 

As we have previously written, competitive advantages in several industries are not only acquired but consolidated as a result of a silent industrial revolution that has taken place largely outside the radar of international investors. These advantages are underpinned by one of the lowest costs of capital globally and by energy prices that are roughly half those in the U.S. Long-term planning has led to a decade of investment in the power grid and energy production – from coal to solar to nuclear. Aggressive trade policies also ensure cheap imports of energy and raw materials from Russia. 

There are thus multiple and solid reasons to believe that the current rally is not just a flash in the pan, but the beginning of a multi-year structural bull market.

 
7. Conclusion

2025 is showing us a world split between (some) old certainties and new trajectories. The United States remains “exceptional,” but with increasingly fragile fundamentals. Europe risks losing relevance and, above all, a historic opportunity, weighed down by fiscal imbalances and political divisions. China unexpectedly emerges as the potential epicenter of a multi-year bull market. 

Our portfolio reflects these convictions and the trends outlined above.

In this evolving context, our approach remains unchanged: investing by strategies, not by asset classes, through truly active, global, benchmark-free management. With the same enduring goal: to build a portfolio that stands apart from the mainstream, aiming to deliver real returns with controlled volatility.

[1] Source: Plenisfer Investments SGR. Data as of 30/09/2025

[2] Source: official company statements (Microsoft, Google, Amazon)

[3] Source: Bloomberg

[4]Source: Bloomberg
 

***

Disclaimer

Marketing communication for professional investors in Italy. 

Please refer to the Prospectus and KID before making any final investment decisions.

Destination Value Total Return ("DVTR") -Investment Objective and Policy: The objective of this Fund is to achieve a higher risk-adjusted total return over the market cycle. To achieve the Fund's objectives, it is essential to realize long-term capital appreciation and underlying income through a long-term orientation on valuation and market cycles. Benchmark: SOFR Index. The Fund is actively managed and uses the Benchmark to calculate the performance-related fee. The Fund does not use the Benchmark for investment purposes.

Destination Dynamic Income Total Return ("DDITR") - Investment Objective and Policy: The Fund aims to achieve attractive risk-adjusted total return through capital appreciation and income generation over the medium term. The Portfolio is actively managed and does not make investments in relation to any benchmark; this means that individual positions are actively selected based on specific research and evaluations. Although it is actively managed and does not use a benchmark for portfolio allocation, the Portfolio refers to the €STR Index for performance fee calculation purposes.

Destination Capital Total Return ("DCTR") - Investment Objective and Policy: The Portfolio aims to achieve an attractive total return in terms of risk through long-term capital appreciation with some income generation, focusing on long-term valuation and market cycles. The Fund is actively managed and does not make investments in relation to any benchmark; this means that individual positions are actively selected based on specific research and evaluations. Although it is actively managed and does not use a benchmark for portfolio allocation, the Portfolio refers to the MSCI ACWI Total Return USD Index for performance fee calculation purposes.

There is no guarantee that an investment objective will be met or that there will be a return on capital. The sub-fund does not benefit from any guarantees to protect capital.

Synthetic Risk Indicator DVTR and DDITR (classes R EUR Acc): 3 (medium-low risk) 

Synthetic Risk Indicator DCTR (Class I USD Acc): 4 (medium risk) 

The Risk Indicator may vary by Fund and share class, please refer to the relevant Prospectus and PRIIP KID for more details. For SRI classification of other share classes available in your country, please get in touch with your financial advisor.

Main risks of the Funds: interest rate risk, credit risk, emerging market risk (including China). There is no predetermined limit to exposure to emerging markets. Therefore, emerging market risk could be high at times, frontier market risk, foreign exchange risk, volatility risk, liquidity risk, derivatives risk, short exposure risk, distressed debt securities risk, securitized debt risk, contingent capital securities risk ("CoCos"), Equity risk, Commodity risk, Securities under Rule 144A / Regulation S. Capital loss risks: this fund is not a guaranteed product. You may not receive part or all of the initial amount invested. Considering the investment strategies that characterize the Funds, the expected level of leverage may vary up to 350%, excluding the total net value of the portfolio. The use of leverage can increase the risk of potential losses. This is not an exhaustive list of risks. Other risks may occur. 

(DVTR) Costs: Class R, Share: X EUR Accumulation (ISIN: LU2185978587, registered in Italy). One-time costs on entry or exit: Entry costs: 5% of the amount you pay when you subscribe to this investment. This is the maximum you will be charged. Exit costs: 0% we do not charge an exit fee for this product. Underwriting costs are calculated based on NAV. Ongoing costs recorded each year: Management fees and other administrative costs: 1.6% per year (including management fee: 1.25%). This is an estimate based on last year's actual costs. Transaction costs: 0.3% per year of the value of your investment. This is an estimate of the costs incurred when we buy and sell the underlying investments for the product. The actual amount will vary depending on how much we buy and sell. Incidental charges incurred under certain conditions: Performance Fee: 0.00% The redemption fee is calculated based on the mechanism of the "High Water Mark with Performance-Related Fee Benchmark," with a Performance-Related Fee Rate of 15.00% per annum of the positive return achieved above the "SOFR Index" (the Performance-Related Fee Benchmark). The current amount will vary according to the performance of your investment.

(DDITR) Costs: Class R, Share: X EUR Accumulation (ISIN: LU2597958268, registered in, Italy). One-time costs on entry or exit: Underwriting costs: 4%, of the amount you pay when you subscribe to this investment. This is the maximum you will be charged Exit costs: 0%, we do not charge any exit fees for this product. Underwriting costs are calculated based on NAV. Ongoing costs recorded each year: Management fee and other administrative or operating costs: 1.4% (including management fee: max 1.10% per year) of investment value per year. This is an estimate based on the last year's actual costs. Transaction costs: 0.3% of the value of the investment per year. This is an estimate of the costs incurred in buying and selling the underlying investments for the product. Ancillary charges incurred under certain conditions: Performance fee: 0.00%. The performance fee is calculated according to the "High Water Mark with performance fee benchmark" mechanism with a performance fee rate of 15.00% per annum of the positive return above the €STR Index (the performance fee benchmark).

(DCTR) Costs: Class I, Share: X USD Accumulation (ISIN: LU2717270206, registered in Italy). One-time costs on entry or exit: Underwriting costs: 0%, we do not charge any underwriting fees for this product. This is the maximum you will be charged Exit costs: 0%, we do not charge any exit fees for this product. Underwriting costs are calculated based on NAV. Ongoing costs recorded each year: Management fee and other administrative or operating costs: 1.10% (including management fee: max 0.75% per year) of investment value per year. This is an estimate based on the last year's actual costs. Transaction costs: 0.1% of the value of the investment per year. This is an estimate of the costs incurred in buying and selling the underlying investments for the product. Ancillary charges incurred under certain conditions: Performance fee: 0.00%. The performance fee is calculated according to the "High Water Mark with performance fee benchmark" mechanism with a performance fee rate of 15.00% per annum of the positive return above the MSCI ACWI Net Total Return USD Index (the performance fee benchmark). The actual amount will vary according to the performance of your investment.

Performance and management fees are calculated and, where applicable, accrued separately for each share class within a sub-fund on each valuation day.

Reference currencies of the sub-funds: USD (Destination Value Total Return and Destination Capital Total Return) and EUR (Destination Dynamic Income Total Return). When the Fund/Action reference currency is different from yours, returns and costs may increase or decrease due to currency and exchange rate fluctuations.

Costs may increase or decrease depending on currency fluctuations and exchange rates.This is not an exhaustive list of costs. Other costs apply and vary depending on the share class. Before making any investment decision, please read the Prospectus and the Key Information Document (KID), especially the sections on risks and costs. The documents are available at the following web pages: 

 - https://www.plenisfer.com/it/en/professional/fund-page/plenisfer-investments-sicav-destination-value-total-return-iyh-eur-or-lu2087694647-acc-LU2087694647

-  https://www.plenisfer.com/it/en/professional/fund-page/plenisfer-investments-sicav-destination-dynamic-income-total-return-ix-or-lu2597958938-distr-LU2597958938

- https://www.plenisfer.com/it/en/professional/fund-page/plenisfer-investments-sicav-destination-capital-total-return-ix-usd-accumulation-or-lu2717270206-distr-LU2717270206

Recommended holding period: 5 years (DVTR), 4 years (DDITR), 5 years (DCTR)

SFDR Classification: The Funds promote, among other characteristics, environmental or social characteristics according to Article 8 of Regulation (EU) 2019/2088 on Sustainability Reporting in the Financial Services Sector ("SFDR"). The Funds are not an Article 9 according to SFDR (does not have sustainable investment as an objective). For all information on SFDR (Sustainable Finance Disclosure), please refer to Annex B of the Prospectus ("pre-contract document"). Before making an investment decision, please also consider all ESG features or objectives, approach, binding elements and methodological limitations contained in the SFDR Pre-contractual Disclosure, as well as the Summary of Product Disclosure on the website, available in English or in an official language of your country of residence, in the "Sustainability Disclosure" section of the website: https://www.generali-investments.lu/it/en/institutional/sustainability-related-disclosure.

Important Information 

This marketing communication relates to Plenisfer Investments SICAV, an investment company with variable capital (SICAV) under the Luxembourg law of December 17, 2010, qualified as an undertaking for collective investment in transferable securities (UCITS), and its Funds, "Destination Value Total Return (“DVTR”)”, "Destination Dynamic Income Total Return (“DDITR”)”, and "Destination Capital Total Return ("DCTR")," collectively referred to as "the Funds.". This marketing communication is intended for investors in Italy, where the Funds is registered, and is not intended for retail investors or U.S. persons as defined in Regulation S of the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended. 

This document is co-issued by Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Asset Management Company, Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A. and Plenisfer Investments SGR S.p.A. ("Plenisfer Investments"). Plenisfer Investments is authorized as a SICAV - UCITS management company in Italy, regulated by the Bank of Italy - Via Niccolò Machiavelli 4, Trieste, 34132, Italy - CM: 15404 - LEI: 984500E9CB9BBCE3E272.

The Fund Management Company of Plenisfer Investment SICAV is Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A., a public limited company (société anonyme) under Luxembourg law, authorized as a UCITS Management Company and Alternative Investment Fund Manager (AIFM) in Luxembourg, regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) - CSSF Code: S00000988 LEI: 222100FSOH054LBKJL62. 

Generali Asset Management S.p.A is an Italian asset management company regulated by the Bank of Italy and appointed to act as a commercial promoter of the Funds in the EU/EEA countries where the Funds are registered for distribution (Via Niccolò Machiavelli 4, Trieste, 34132, Italy - C.M.n.15376 - LEI: 549300LKCLUOHU2BK025).

Before making any investment decision, please read the Key Information Document (KID), the Prospectus and Annex B of the Prospectus ("pre-contractual document"). The KIDs are available in one of the official languages of the EU/EEA country where the funds are registered for distribution, and the Prospectus is available in English (not French), as are the annual and semi-annual reports at www.generali-investments.lu or upon request free of charge to Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A., 4 Rue Jean Monnet, L-2180 Luxembourg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, e-mail address: GILfundInfo@generali-invest.com. The Management Companies may decide to terminate the agreements entered into for the marketing of the Funds. For a summary of your rights as an investor in connection with an individual complaint or collective action for a financial product dispute at the European level and at the level of your country of residence in the EU, please refer to the following link https://www.generali-investments.lu/lu/en/institutional/about-us-sfdr. The summary is available in English or an authorized language in your country of residence. A summary of the SFDR information (in English or an authorized language) on the product is available on the Funds page of the website in the "Sustainability Information" section

This marketing communication is not intended to provide investment, tax, accounting, professional or legal advice and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell the Funds or any other security that may be presented. Any opinions or forecasts provided are current as of the date specified, may change without notice, may not occur, and do not constitute a recommendation or offer of any investment. Past or target performance does not predict future returns. There is no guarantee that positive forecasts will be achieved in the future. The value of an investment and any income from it may rise or fall, and you may not recover the full amount originally invested. Future performance is subject to taxation, which depends on each investor's personal circumstances and may change in the future.

Please get in touch with your tax advisor to understand the impact of taxes on your returns. The existence of a registration or approval does not imply that a regulatory authority has determined that these products are suitable for investors. It is recommended that you carefully consider the terms of your investment and obtain professional, legal, financial and tax advice where necessary before making a decision to invest in a Fund. 

Generali Investments is a brand name of Generali Asset Management S.p.A Asset Management Company, Generali Insurance Asset Management S.p.A. Asset Management Company, Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A. and Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. - Sources (unless otherwise stated): Plenisfer Investments and Generali Asset Management S.p.A Asset Management Company.